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Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025
Table 1. Summary of results
Energy/Economic Factors |
2000 |
2001 |
2025 |
||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Reference |
Low
|
High Economic Growth |
Low |
High |
|||
Primary Production (quadrillion Btu) |
|||||||
Petroleum |
15.14 |
14.94 |
15.05 |
14.38 |
15.45 |
14.12 |
15.92 |
Natural Gas |
19.50 |
19.97 |
27.47 |
25.24 |
28.72 |
26.99 |
27.99 |
Coal |
22.58 |
23.97 |
29.29 |
27.81 |
31.08 |
29.18 |
29.74 |
Nuclear Power |
7.87 |
8.03 |
8.43 |
8.43 |
8.43 |
8.43 |
8.43 |
Renewable Energy |
5.96 |
5.33 |
8.78 |
8.26 |
9.38 |
8.82 |
8.76 |
Other |
1.09 |
0.57 |
0.80 |
0.80 |
0.83 |
0.81 |
0.82 |
Total Primary Production |
72.15 |
72.81 |
89.83 |
84.93 |
93.90 |
88.36 |
91.66 |
Net Imports (quadrillion Btu) |
|||||||
Petroleum (including SPR) |
22.28 |
23.29 |
41.23 |
37.63 |
45.82 |
44.06 |
37.97 |
Natural Gas |
3.62 |
3.73 |
7.93 |
6.93 |
9.29 |
7.63 |
8.01 |
Coal/Other (- indicates export) |
-0.84 |
-0.54 |
0.27 |
0.22 |
0.38 |
0.26 |
0.27 |
Total Net Imports |
25.06 |
26.48 |
49.43 |
44.78 |
55.49 |
51.96 |
46.25 |
Discrepancy |
-2.18 |
1.99 |
0.19 |
0.31 |
0.14 |
0.07 |
0.34 |
Consumption (quadrillion Btu) |
|||||||
Petroleum Products |
38.53 |
38.46 |
56.56 |
52.16 |
61.61 |
58.57 |
54.65 |
Natural Gas |
24.07 |
23.26 |
35.81 |
32.58 |
38.42 |
35.03 |
35.98 |
Coal |
22.64 |
22.02 |
29.42 |
27.89 |
31.32 |
29.32 |
29.67 |
Nuclear Power |
7.87 |
8.03 |
8.43 |
8.43 |
8.43 |
8.43 |
8.43 |
Renewable Energy |
5.96 |
5.33 |
8.78 |
8.26 |
9.39 |
8.82 |
8.76 |
Other |
0.31 |
0.21 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
0.08 |
0.07 |
0.07 |
Total Consumption |
99.38 |
97.30 |
139.07 |
129.39 |
149.25 |
140.24 |
137.57 |
Prices (2001 dollars) |
|||||||
World Oil Price |
|||||||
(dollars per barrel) |
28.35 |
22.01 |
26.57 |
24.85 |
28.09 |
19.04 |
33.05 |
Domestic Natural Gas at Wellhead |
|||||||
(dollars per thousand cubic feet) |
3.83 |
4.12 |
3.90 |
3.83 |
4.50 |
3.87 |
3.92 |
Domestic Coal at Minemouth |
|||||||
(dollars per short ton) |
17.18 |
17.59 |
14.36 |
13.99 |
14.93 |
14.17 |
14.59 |
Average Electricity Price |
|||||||
(cents per kilowatthour) |
6.9 |
7.3 |
6.7 |
6.5 |
7.1 |
6.6 |
6.7 |
Economic Indicators | |||||||
Real Gross Domestic Product |
|||||||
(billion 1996 dollars) |
9,191 |
9,215 |
18,917 |
16,589 |
21,155 |
18,972 |
18,875 |
(annual change, 2001-2025) |
— |
— |
3.0% |
2.5% |
3.5% |
3.1% |
3.0% |
GDP Chain-Type Price Index |
|||||||
(index, 1996=1.000) |
1.069 |
1.094 |
1.981 |
2.291 |
1.692 |
1.957 |
2.018 |
(annual change, 2001-2025) |
— |
— |
2.5% |
3.1% |
1.8% |
2.5% |
2.6% |
Real Disposable Personal Income |
|||||||
(billion 1996 dollars) |
6,630 |
6,748 |
13,435 |
12,246 |
14,587 |
13,451 |
13,480 |
(annual change, 2001-2025) |
— |
— |
2.9% |
2.5% |
3.3% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
Value of Manufacturing Shipments |
|||||||
(billion 1996 dollars) |
4,378 |
4,079 |
8,257 |
7,411 |
9,714 |
8,297 |
8,222 |
(annual change, 2001-2025) |
— |
— |
3.0% |
2.5% |
3.7% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
Energy Intensity |
|||||||
(thousand Btu per 1996 dollar of GDP) |
10.82 |
10.57 |
7.36 |
7.81 |
7.06 |
7.40 |
7.29 |
(annual change, 2001-2025) |
— |
— |
-1.5% |
-1.3% |
-1.7% |
-1.5% |
-1.5% |
Carbon Dioxide Emissions |
|||||||
(million metric tons carbon equivalent) |
1,578 |
1,559 |
2,237 |
2,083 |
2,401 |
2,261 |
2,211 |
(annual change, 2001-2025) |
— |
— |
1.5% |
1.2% |
1.8% |
1.6% |
1.5% |
Notes:
Specific assumptions underlying the alternative cases are defined in the
Economic Activity and International Oil Markets sections beginning on page
50. Quantities are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion
factors. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, supplemental
natural gas, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include
crude oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending
components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Some refinery
inputs appear as petroleum product consumption. Other consumption includes
net electricity imports, liquid hydrogen, and methanol. Sources: Tables A1, A19, A20, B1, B19, B20, C1, C19, and C20. |
Page last modified on Mon Jan 27 2003 20:04:53 GMT+0000 (GMT). URL: http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/tbl1.html |