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Annual Energy Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025

Table 1. Summary of results

Energy/Economic Factors

2000

2001

2025

Reference

Low
Economic Growth

High Economic Growth

Low
World Oil Price

High
World Oil Price

Primary Production (quadrillion Btu)

  Petroleum

15.14

14.94

15.05

14.38

15.45

14.12

15.92

  Natural Gas

19.50

19.97

27.47

25.24

28.72

26.99

27.99

  Coal

22.58

23.97

29.29

27.81

31.08

29.18

29.74

  Nuclear Power

7.87

8.03

8.43

8.43

8.43

8.43

8.43

  Renewable Energy

5.96

5.33

8.78

8.26

9.38

8.82

8.76

  Other

1.09

0.57

0.80

0.80

0.83

0.81

0.82

    Total Primary Production

72.15

72.81

89.83

84.93

93.90

88.36

91.66

Net Imports (quadrillion Btu)

  Petroleum (including SPR)

22.28

23.29

41.23

37.63

45.82

44.06

37.97

  Natural Gas

3.62

3.73

7.93

6.93

9.29

7.63

8.01

  Coal/Other (- indicates export)

-0.84

-0.54

0.27

0.22

0.38

0.26

0.27

    Total Net Imports

25.06

26.48

49.43

44.78

55.49

51.96

46.25

  Discrepancy

-2.18

1.99

0.19

0.31

0.14

0.07

0.34

Consumption (quadrillion Btu)

  Petroleum Products

38.53

38.46

56.56

52.16

61.61

58.57

54.65

  Natural Gas

24.07

23.26

35.81

32.58

38.42

35.03

35.98

  Coal

22.64

22.02

29.42

27.89

31.32

29.32

29.67

  Nuclear Power

7.87

8.03

8.43

8.43

8.43

8.43

8.43

  Renewable Energy

5.96

5.33

8.78

8.26

9.39

8.82

8.76

  Other

0.31

0.21

0.07

0.07

0.08

0.07

0.07

    Total Consumption

99.38

97.30

139.07

129.39

149.25

140.24

137.57

Prices (2001 dollars)

  World Oil Price

             

  (dollars per barrel)

28.35

22.01

26.57

24.85

28.09

19.04

33.05

  Domestic Natural Gas at Wellhead

             

  (dollars per thousand cubic feet)

3.83

4.12

3.90

3.83

4.50

3.87

3.92

  Domestic Coal at Minemouth

             

  (dollars per short ton)

17.18

17.59

14.36

13.99

14.93

14.17

14.59

  Average Electricity Price

             

  (cents per kilowatthour)

6.9

7.3

6.7

6.5

7.1

6.6

6.7

Economic Indicators

  Real Gross Domestic Product

             

    (billion 1996 dollars)

9,191

9,215

18,917

16,589

21,155

18,972

18,875

    (annual change, 2001-2025)

3.0%

2.5%

3.5%

3.1%

3.0%

  GDP Chain-Type Price Index

             

    (index, 1996=1.000)

1.069

1.094

1.981

2.291

1.692

1.957

2.018

    (annual change, 2001-2025)

2.5%

3.1%

1.8%

2.5%

2.6%

  Real Disposable Personal Income

             

    (billion 1996 dollars)

6,630

6,748

13,435

12,246

14,587

13,451

13,480

    (annual change, 2001-2025)

2.9%

2.5%

3.3%

2.9%

2.9%

  Value of Manufacturing Shipments

             

    (billion 1996 dollars)

4,378

4,079

8,257

7,411

9,714

8,297

8,222

    (annual change, 2001-2025)

3.0%

2.5%

3.7%

3.0%

3.0%

Energy Intensity

   (thousand Btu per 1996 dollar of GDP)

10.82

10.57

7.36

7.81

7.06

7.40

7.29

   (annual change, 2001-2025)

-1.5%

-1.3%

-1.7%

-1.5%

-1.5%

Carbon Dioxide Emissions

   (million metric tons carbon equivalent)

1,578

1,559

2,237

2,083

2,401

2,261

2,211

   (annual change, 2001-2025)

1.5%

1.2%

1.8%

1.6%

1.5%

Notes: Specific assumptions underlying the alternative cases are defined in the Economic Activity and International Oil Markets sections beginning on page 50. Quantities are derived from historical volumes and assumed thermal conversion factors. Other production includes liquid hydrogen, methanol, supplemental natural gas, and some inputs to refineries. Net imports of petroleum include crude oil, petroleum products, unfinished oils, alcohols, ethers, and blending components. Other net imports include coal coke and electricity. Some refinery inputs appear as petroleum product consumption. Other consumption includes net electricity imports, liquid hydrogen, and methanol.
    Sources: Tables A1, A19, A20, B1, B19, B20, C1, C19, and C20.

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Page last modified on Mon Jan 27 2003 20:04:53 GMT+0000 (GMT).
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